Are you getting bored of simply betting on who will win the game each time? Change it up and bet on the total instead. Total betting is essentially a 50/50 proposition on whether the total points scored by both teams will go over or under the bookmaker’s posted total.

Also known as over/under betting, this type of wager is available on almost any sport you can think of: football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer to name a few. Hockey, as we explain in this article, is perhaps the best sport for profitable totals betting, as it’s the easiest one for handicapping totals. That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made by betting the total for the other sports mentioned though.

In this article we cover how to price betting totals, and provide a number of other strategies for using this type of wager effectively.

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• Hockey over/under betting, also known as the “Totals”, is a great way to take advantage and enjoy the game of hockey in a much grandeur sense. Instead of predicting and putting a wager on the exact number of goals scored by each team in a given matchup, hockey over/unders rely on the combined totals of both team’s score – the estimate of the totals to be more precise.

If you’re not yet familiar with how this type of wager works, please see our beginner’s guide to totals betting.

How to Successfully Bet on Hockey Betting on Hockey. Before a person can start to bet the NHL, it's important they have a solid understanding of the money. While betting on the winner of the game, as shown above, is the most popular method of betting the NHL.

Pricing Betting Totals

Again, we’ll point out that it’s much easier to handicap totals betting in hockey than with any other sport. This simple formula should be enough to help you make a rough prediction for how many goals will be scored in a hockey game.

For baseball, all sorts of other factors come into play. The starting pitcher, how batters have performed against pitchers with similar stats, today’s lineup and the bullpen all have to be considered. Technically, when it comes to baseball there’s a lot more useful data to work with, which means making more precise predictions is a strong possibility. However, interpreting all of that data correctly in order to make valid judgments is easier said than done.

A challenge we face for football betting is that there are simply not enough games in the season to get an accurate figure using points scored and points allowed alone. For this, the first adjustment required is to use medians not averages. Looking to this set of numbers: 3, 7, 15, the median is 7 and the average is 8.33.

How do you apply this to betting football totals? When calculating points scored and points allowed, place each into a list in ascending order. The number in the middle is your median, and you can use that number in conjunction with the league average to find your estimated points scored in a game.

Here are the calculations required to do this.

The problem here is that this model is far too simplistic to yield long-term profits. No matter how simple the sport, you’ll need to make other adjustments.

Of course, if handicapping totals were easy then the market would dry up and there would be no profit left. So, if you’re ambitious, the fact that they are hard can be an advantage for you.

Alternative to Pricing Totals

Rather than learning how to price totals, a good strategy for the ambitious beginner is learning predictive modeling.

There’s a good article on this in the book shown here, Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. This book can be purchased on Amazon. It’s the perfect read for those interested in advanced fundamentals.

Now for those who don’t want to wait for the book, we continue with more helpful advice on total betting.

Understanding Key Numbers

When projecting betting totals, it’s important to understand key numbers. For example, in NFL football, the most common total points scored, in order, are as follows.

• 41
• 43
• 37
• 44
• 51
• 33
• 47

Knowing this we’d be far more likely to bet over 41 when our model predicted 41.3 than we would be willing to bet under 41 when our model predicted 40.7. While 40 is still a rather common outcome, 39 and 38 are very low probability totals. Over 41 gives us a push on the most common outcome and a win on the second and fourth most common outcomes.

Off Market Prices & Bonuses

With the information just given, there’s a relatively straightforward way to profit from betting NFL totals. The goal is to take advantage of sports betting bonuses and off market prices simultaneously.

What you need to understand is, as mentioned in our article on how to handicap the market, there’s two distinct types of sports betting sites. Sharp books, which are betting sites friendly to professionals, and square books, which are betting sites that target recreational bettors.

It’s also important to understand fan bias. NFL fans typically prefer to bet in favor of something happening rather than against something happening. In other words, betting the over is a lot more fun than betting the under. This leads to recreational betting sites often padding the total an extra 0.5 points, thus making the line worse for bettors wagering on the over.

Recreational sites often have total disregard, or might even be unaware of, the implication of key numbers. Remember the most common total points scored in NFL games we mentioned earlier? If you were to shop a recreational site against a square book looking for spots, here’s what you’d probably find: the sharp book offering a 47.0 betting total and the recreational site offering a 47.5 betting total. You’d quickly see that the under bet at 47.5 is close to neutral expected value.

When you’re lucky enough to find a near neutral EV bet while also having a bonus, chances are high that you’ll be able to make considerable profits by betting totals.

Please see our article on sports betting bonuses and rewards for more information on the extra value you can get at online betting sites.

Making Correlated Wagers

One way to gain maximum value when total betting is to consider if there’s a correlation between the total bet you’re making and a game’s point spread. For instance, let’s say you’re betting the under based on the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is playing with less than 100% health, and you believe the Steelers will run the ball and eat the clock.

Now, if the Steelers are -7.5 favorites in the game, then maybe your opinion that the game will go under also means their opponent is more likely to cover the +7.5 point spread. When this is the case, we suggest betting the point spread and the total together in a parlay bet.

Odds or Evens

To state what to many is probably obvious, in certain sports, even and odd number totals make a huge difference. This relates to low scoring sports such as baseball, hockey, and in certain cases soccer. Keep in mind that in baseball and hockey, if a game ends in a tie, it keeps going until the tie is broken. Since ties always represent an even amount of points, it’s clear to see why an odd total outcome is more likely to occur than an even total outcome.

How does this relate to soccer? In some circumstance, like elimination tournaments for example, soccer games aren’t allowed to end in a tie. In such matches, a total betting line of 2.5 has only four ways for the under to win. These are 0-1, 1-0, 0-2, and 2-0.

Notice that the only way for the under bet to win is for a shutout to happen. We’ve actually found occasional arbitrage bets (bets where you can bet multiple sides of a game to guarantee a win) just from taking this into consideration.

Totals wagers placed on soccer matches where a tie must be broken often only take the first 90 minutes of normal time into account. In that case, there would actually be six possible scorelines for the under to win. 0-0 and 1-1 would also be possibilities.

Avoiding Suckers Bets

We can’t stress enough the importance of avoiding sucker bets. For example, making teaser bets on totals is a long-term losing proposition that is better off avoided. What else do suckers do? They forget to shop around for the best lines.

Best Way To Bet On Hockey Team

Remember, as mentioned earlier, recreational betting sites will often shade lines or adjust odds to make things worse for those wagering on the more popular selections. This is to trap “fish” – the bettors that tend to lose frequently because they DO make sucker bets.

Best Way To Bet On Hockey

If you don’t want to be a fish, please check out our article on sucker bets and how to avoid them.

The National Hockey League (NHL) is the cream of the crop when it comes to ice hockey anywhere in the world. Originally started up North, the sport has spread like wildfire…or more like something cold that spreads fast. The NHL now has fans in all corners of the US as well as all corners of the globe. With this popularity, you can understand why the NHL is a favorite amongst sports bettors. The action is fast-paced, and if you know what you’re doing, you can stand to make a lot of money.

In this guide, we’re going to walk you through the ins and outs of NHL betting strategy. We’ll give you the tips and the tools that you need to dominate the books. With some hard work, research, and our strategies, you’re going to be well on your way to cashing in big if you can put it all together. Without any further delay, let’s get into the strategy.

The Importance of Travel Schedules

Often overlooked in most sports are the travel schedules of each team. While this is important in all sports, it becomes much more important in a physically demanding sport like ice hockey. It’s a game where your body is beaten up, bruised, and pounded night after night. If you don’t think this is going to have a toll on performance, you’re living in a fantasy world.

Obviously, all teams go through the same punishment. If that’s the case, then is it just a wash because everyone goes through it? The answer might seem like a yes, but in reality, it’s a no. Imagine if you played two home games in a week versus playing four road games in a week? Which team is going to be the freshest for that next game? You can bet your bottom dollar that the team with fewer games and at home is going to be much more physically prepared for the next game.

So, what should you be looking for and how do you apply this? Well, you should be looking for teams that you think are going to be suffering from excessive fatigue and look to see if there is a good line to bet against them. Remember, just because a team is tired or on a long road trip does not mean they are destined to lose. All it means is that they are not going to be as fresh which could impact speed, power, focus, and overall performance.

You also want to make sure that you look at how far teams have to travel. If they’re bouncing all over the country, you can bet that their sleep and recovery are going to be hindered. They may be professional athletes, but they’re also still human.

The best advice we can give you with this is to take it into account but don’t let it dominate your strategy too aggressively. It’s important, but it doesn’t mean that just because a team has had a lot of travel, they are suddenly going to turn into lame ducks. We like to use this when a line is close, and we’re on the fence about a bet. If this backs up our bet, it makes us a lot more confident with what we’re betting on. If it’s contradictory, we may shy away from the bet that we were on the fence on.

Overvaluing Statistics

Serious sports bettors savor statistics. However, the problem with savoring something too much is you start to salivate and look like a fool. What are we trying to say so mystically? We’re trying to say that statistics are extremely important when making your picks, but you need to be careful that you don’t overvalue the wrong statistics. Let’s break this down into a few individual things to look for.

Accuracy of Statistics

The absolute most important thing that you have to check when working with statistics is whether or not they are accurate. Now, we are not saying that every number you get off the web you have to take out your calculator and check it out. What you can do instead is make sure to get your data from a reputable source. There are plenty of data sites out there that you can use that pride themselves on their accuracy.

We highly recommend using one of these sites or using something like ESPN for your numbers. Even then, you should still spot check a few of the numbers just in case. Make sure that someone somewhere isn’t about to lose their job for making a terrible stats error. You won’t be able to get your bets reversed by a sportsbook by telling them that you accidentally used bad stats.

Stats that Matter

You’ve got to use your noggin and make sure that you are only using statistics that mean something. There are a lot of stats that sound great on Sportscenter, but don’t mean much when it comes to betting. It’s entertaining to hear that a certain team hasn’t beaten the other team when they play on Thursdays for the last 12 years.

Does this actually have anything to do with how good either team is? It certainly does not. Unless they were the exact same teams every year and there is something special about Thursdays (like they make them play in different types of skates), then this stat is worthless. You’d be amazed at how many bettors love to latch onto these “fun facts” and end up convincing themselves to make a bet they otherwise wouldn’t.

Make sure that a stat is useful before you try and use it. How do you know if it’s useful? Ask yourself if the stat will have a direct effect on the game. How many goals the goalie has allowed on average that year? Great stat. How the teams did in their last five meetings right before they got a bunch of new players? Probably not so great. We know you’re smart kids. You just have to take a few minutes and assess the stat and decide how to proceed.

Line Matchups

Ice hockey is a game that is played in lines. A line is a group of players that are sent onto the ice together at the same time. The lines can be changed throughout the game and will match up against the different lines of the opposing team. Why is this important? Well, to understand how well a team is going to perform, you need to understand how their different lines work together. You also need to understand how their lines are going to match up against the opposing team’s lines.

You’re looking for line matchups that are going to create favorable scoring opportunities. This sort of analysis allows you to go deeper into the team’s roster and find the situations where potential goals are possible.

Looking for Value

While the rest of these strategies and tips are important, they all pale in comparison to this tip. Calling this a tip might even be doing it an injustice. This is actually the basis of all successful sports betting. The secret to winning long-term is being able to identify bets that have value. Sometimes this will mean betting on teams that you think are going to lose and sometimes it means passing on betting on teams that you think are going to win.

The concept can be tough to wrap your head around initially but once you do you will officially be on another level. Sports betting and NHL betting have nothing to do with what your win-loss record is. They have everything to do with what your return on investment in. Basically, you can have a “losing” record and still be crushing your bets and making a ton of money. On the flip side, you could have a “winning” record and be losing money and be a terrible sports bettor.

This is a concept that you MUST understand before you plan to go any further. To help you out, we’ve put together a fully dedicated sports betting guide on how to find value in your bets. It’s intensive, but it’s crucial to your success in the industry.

Putting it All Together

You’ve now got all of the tools you need to get started building out your winning NHL betting strategy. Are these all the things you should be looking at when you bet? No. What we were aiming to do here is give you an idea of where your mind should be going when you’re looking to place an NHL bet. These are the same things that our team of experts uses on a daily basis to make their picks. Mix these strategies with hard work and effective research, and you’re on your way to being a profitable NHL bettor.

Remember, at the end of the day that all of these strategies revolve around finding value in all of your bets. If you can successfully find value, you’re going to be making a lot of money every NHL season.