Nba Teaser Odds

Best Sportsbooks Best Teaser Sportsbooks. Football Teasers can be a weapon for the educated sports bettor. In the hands of a smart player, those 6 points can pick off targets with precision. But for the naive gambler, teaser. Game Time Team » Teaser Odds Expected ROI Sportsbook; 07:05 PM ET Wizards » Tease to -3.0: 1.33%: 5Dimes: 10:35 PM ET 76ers » Tease to -2.0-3.00%: 5Dimes.

  1. In the NBA the most common teasers are 4.5, 5, and 5.5 points, with both higher and lower point totals available from some betting shops. Let's say you liked the Lakers, who were favored by six.
  2. May 22, 2019 6-Point Basketball Teasers — Odds Survey If you must bet an NBA teaser, never cross or touch a tie. For example, on a 4-point teaser, only tease underdogs, or favorites of 4.5 points or more. Off of totals there are no significant numbers to avoid.

Introduction

This page addresses betting on basketball, specifically the NBA. The figures in this pages are based on 6,567 historical games, from seasons beginning 2013 to 2017. It is assumed the reader knows basic sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, please visit my page on sports betting first.

Betting Against the Spread

On average, the home team wins 58.4% of the time and scores 2.70 more points than the road team. However, betting against the spread, I show road teams to be the much better value, as the following table shows. The table is based on laying 11 to win 10. The return column shows the expected percentage of money won (or lost when negative) to money bet. As you can see, betting home teams has a house edge of 6.22%, while road teams are only 2.70%.

Road or Home Team Against the Spread

SideWinsProbabilityReturn
Road 3,280 0.499467 -0.026981
Home 3,159 0.481042 -0.062157
Push 128 0.019491
Total 6,567 1.000000 -0.044569

The next table shows the results betting on underdogs and favorites against the spread. This does not include the 61 games where the point spread was zero. I was expecting underdogs to do significantly better, but the results proved me wrong — they did only slightly better. As you can see, the probability of the underdog winning was only 0.4% greater than favorites. The return shows the ratio of expected player win (negative indicates a loss) to money bet, assuming the player is laying 11 to win 10.

Underdog or Favorite Against the Spread

SideWinsProbabilityReturn
Favorite 3,176 0.488165 -0.048375
Underdog 3,202 0.492161 -0.040746
Push 128 0.019674
Total 6,506 1.000000 -0.044560

Overs and Unders

The following table shows how often each game went over, under, and fell exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the ratio of player win to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10. Not surprisingly, the table shows betting the under side to be the slightly better value, with a probability of winning 0.21% higher than over bets.

Under or Over Against the Total

SideWinsProbabilityReturn
Over 3,232 0.492158 -0.051561
Under 3,246 0.494290 -0.047084
Push 89 0.013553
Total 6,567 1.000000 -0.044839

Money Line

The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, assuming one unit is bet per game. The return shows that betting road teams is the better value, with an expected return 0.53% higher.

Money Line by Side

SideTotal BetTotal ReturnExpected Return
Home 6,567 6,288.75 -0.042371
Road 6,567 6,323.26 -0.037115
Total 13,134 12,612.01 -0.037115
Odds

The next table shows the expected return on money line bets, cut by whether the team is the underdog, favorite, or even. Surprisingly, to me at least, the table shows favorites to be the better value, with a return 0.46% higher.

Money Line by Favorite/Underdog

Nba teaser odds
SideTotal BetTotal ReturnExpected Return
Favorite 6,506 6262.13 -0.037483
Underdog 6,506 6232.14 -0.042093
Even 122 117.74 -0.034932
Total 13,134 12612.01 -0.039743

The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning by point spread. The estimated probability uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.

Probability of Winning by Point Spread

SpreadWinsGamesActual
Probability
Estimated
Probability
Fair
Line
-15.5 26 24 0.923077 0.922718 -1194
-15 40 39 0.975000 0.916818 -1102
-14.5 44 38 0.863636 0.910510 -1017
-14 49 44 0.897959 0.903774 -939
-13.5 76 70 0.921053 0.896589 -867
-13 69 64 0.927536 0.888933 -800
-12.5 88 80 0.909091 0.880786 -739
-12 102 87 0.852941 0.872127 -682
-11.5 125 109 0.872000 0.862937 -630
-11 130 112 0.861538 0.853198 -581
-10.5 135 113 0.837037 0.842893 -537
-10 168 132 0.785714 0.832006 -495
-9.5 174 138 0.793103 0.820527 -457
-9 231 191 0.826840 0.808443 -422
-8.5 206 154 0.747573 0.795748 -390
-8 248 193 0.778226 0.782438 -360
-7.5 273 194 0.710623 0.768513 -332
-7 269 186 0.691450 0.753978 -306
-6.5 314 227 0.722930 0.738839 -283
-6 337 237 0.703264 0.723112 -261
-5.5 336 209 0.622024 0.706812 -241
-5 358 245 0.684358 0.689965 -223
-4.5 348 224 0.643678 0.672599 -205
-4 344 205 0.595930 0.654746 -190
-3.5 328 186 0.567073 0.636446 -175
-3 349 195 0.558739 0.617742 -162
-2.5 340 199 0.585294 0.598683 -149
-2 367 206 0.561308 0.579320 -138
-1.5 283 157 0.554770 0.559710 -127
-1 254 135 0.531496 0.539913 -117
1 254 119 0.468504 0.460087 117
1.5 283 126 0.445230 0.440290 127
2 367 161 0.438692 0.420680 138
2.5 340 141 0.414706 0.401317 149
3 349 154 0.441261 0.382258 162
3.5 328 142 0.432927 0.363554 175
4 344 139 0.404070 0.345254 190
4.5 347 124 0.357349 0.327401 205
5 358 113 0.315642 0.310035 223
5.5 336 127 0.377976 0.293188 241
6 337 100 0.296736 0.276888 261
6.5 314 87 0.277070 0.261161 283
7 269 83 0.308550 0.246022 306
7.5 273 79 0.289377 0.231487 332
8 248 55 0.221774 0.217562 360
8.5 206 52 0.252427 0.204252 390
9 231 40 0.173160 0.191557 422
9.5 174 36 0.206897 0.179473 457
10 168 36 0.214286 0.167994 495
10.5 135 22 0.162963 0.157107 537
11 130 18 0.138462 0.146802 581
11.5 125 16 0.128000 0.137063 630
12 102 15 0.147059 0.127873 682
12.5 88 8 0.090909 0.119214 739
13 69 5 0.072464 0.111067 800
13.5 76 6 0.078947 0.103411 867
14 49 5 0.102041 0.096226 939
14.5 44 6 0.136364 0.089490 1017
15 40 1 0.025000 0.083182 1102
15.5 26 2 0.076923 0.077282 1194
Nba Teaser Odds

In the unlikely event you encounter a point spread with an absolute value greater than 15.5, then the probability of winning can be estimated as e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where s is the point spread.

Internal Links

When I updated this page in 2018, there were a lot of obscure tables I was too lazy to update. However, I put too much effort into them at the time I made them to just throw them away. So, I split this off to Obscure Topics in Betting the NBA.


Written by: Michael Shackleford

NBA Teasers: Any Value?
by Trevor Whenham

Best Teaser Odds

Are you interested in betting teasers in the NBA? You need to ask yourself a simple question - do you find betting teasers fun? If you do, and if you bet on sports largely to have fun, then betting teasers is a good idea for you. If, on the other hand, your goal is long-term profit and minimized house edge then you should probably avoid teasers in all but unique and specific situations. Don't believe me? Let's have a look.

First, what is a teaser? It's a bet in which you take two or more teams and add a set amount of points to the lines of each team. In the NBA the most common teasers are 4.5, 5, and 5.5 points, with both higher and lower point totals available from some betting shops. Let's say you liked the Lakers, who were favored by six, and Cleveland, who were two point underdogs. If you were to bet a 4.5-point teaser then those lines would become Los Angeles -1.5 and Cleveland +6.5. You bet both games on one ticket, and both results have to occur as you need them to in order for you to receive a payout on your ticket. You aren't limited to just two games, either - you can add more games, and your greater risk is rewarded by a greater monetary return. Some books also have a super teaser that allows you even more points (often seven or more) at a lower payoff.

Nba Teaser Odds

Teasers slash points off of a favorite's point spread and add a further cushion to underdog's, so they sound like a gift to bettors, don't they? Wrong. So, so wrong. The problem is the house edge that you are sacrificing. A house edge is a fact of life in sports betting (unless you have a lot of degenerate friends you can wager with), but smart bettors look to minimize that edge in order to maximize their profit. Teasers certainly don't do that. The reason for this is fairly simple to see.

Let's look at a simple two team, 4.5-point teaser. That wager typically pays out at even money. Since you have to win both games in order to win the bet then, over the long term you have to pick 70.7 percent of games correctly in order to just break even. That's because .707 * .707 = .50, so if you pick 70.7 percent of games correctly then you will pick both right half of the time. The problem is that a shift in spreads of 4.5 points does not, over the long term, cause the favorites to cover more than 70.7 percent of their games, nor does it cause the underdogs to cover more than that mark. By making this bet over the long term then, you are willingly accepting a losing proposition. The situation doesn't improve as the points you add get bigger, either. A 5.5-point, two-team teaser typically pays 5-to-6. That means you have to win 73.9 percent of your games to break even. As is the case with parlays, the house edge also gets larger as you add more teams to your parlay.

Though NBA teasers are not profitable over the long run, it is not theoretically impossible that situations could exist where the bet could make sense. All you would need to do is figure out what the break-even point of the bet is and then find situations where the historical occurrence of an outcome comes at a higher rate than the breakeven rate. None come immediately to mind, but, for the sake of argument, let's say that you were to discover that teams favored by four win 85 percent of their games at home on nights when there is a lunar eclipse. If you were to find a night where the moon and the sun were aligned, and two teams were favored at home by four, then you would have a very worthwhile bet. With a good deal of handicapping work it is feasible that situations like that could be found in the NBA, much like the Wong teaser has been shown to be profitable in the NFL.

Despite the long-term inherent lack of profitability in the NBA teaser, there may be specific situations where a teaser could be attractive. Say, for example, that your handicapping has led you to identify two solid favorites that you like, but which you are lukewarm about. If both teams were favored by seven, and you figure that they will win by somewhere between five and eight points, then you won't feel confident betting on them on the point spread, but you also wouldn't feel confident betting on their opponents. You could confidently bet the moneyline, but the return would be low given the size of the spread. By using a four-point teaser you could adjust both point spreads down so that the spreads are below your predicted score. That might be the best way to confidently maximize profit potential given your suspected result.

Teasers aren't the best bet on the board by any means. That doesn't mean you shouldn't play them, though. Some people love the action and excitement of the wager. You just need to know what you are betting, and what it is costing you. If it still seems worthwhile then go for it.

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